Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS63 KJKL 011340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
940 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some of the storms today could be strong to severe, with gusty
  to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats. An
  instance of large hail or a brief, spin-up tornado can`t be
  ruled out.

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues at times
  into Sunday.

- Some of the storms Friday and Saturday could be strong to
  severe, with gusty to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary
  threats.

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday, followed
  by below normal temperatures from Saturday into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025

Scattered showers are lifting northward out of Tennessee into
southeastern Kentucky at update time but are not expected to be
heavy. Extensive cloud cover east of I-75 will limit heating over
the next several hours. There is partial clearing over Central
Kentucky, which should allow for some destabilization as it works
east. However, a line of showers/storms is also trying to develop
from Columbus, IN to Hardinsburg, KY within axis of stronger
shear and weak instability. This line is not well modeled in any
of the CAMs, but will need to monitored as it moves east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025

The latest surface analysis from across the CONUS shows a warm front
oriented east-west along the Ohio River and moving to the north.
This frontal boundary is continuing to support shower and storm
activity; while the activity isn`t occurring in the JKL CWA, there`s
showers and storms continuing to pop-up across central Kentucky and
southern Ohio. Also, southerly flow behind the front is ushering in
WAA leading to mild temperatures across the area which is confirmed
by from local observations showing mid to upper-60s across eastern
Kentucky. Back to the bigger picture, the parent surface low,
responsible for the front, is currently sitting over central
Missouri with a trailing cold front stretching to the southwest into
the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas.

Through the remainder of the overnight into early tomorrow morning,
weak surface high pressure within the warm sector will break down
ahead of an approaching cold front. As the surface low lifts to the
northeast toward the Great Lakes, the cold front will gradually
track east-northeast toward the CWA. As this occurs, increasing
shower and thunderstorms chances will exist this afternoon. Along
with the front, the threat for strong to severe storms will exist
and this is highlighted with the SPC`s Day 1 Slight Risk. CAM
forecast soundings ahead of the boundary do indicate the threat for
damaging winds but with relatively steep low and mid-level lapse
rates and ESRH values over 150 m2/s2; isolated instances of large
hail and a brief spin-up tornado can`t be ruled out. Hence the 15%
probabilities for wind and hail plus the 2% probability of a tornado
for this afternoon/evening. As the surface low moves into southern
Canada, the cold front will follow suit and gradually exit the area
with decreasing PoP chance by Friday morning.

The upper-level trough, responsible for the first low, will sponsor
the quick development of a secondary surface low as a weak wind
maxima develops within the main trough. This will trigger a
secondary surface feature with accompanying cold front that`s
forecast to track through the Commonwealth through the day Friday
bringing another round of showers and storms. The threat for severe
weather will exist again for Friday and the due to that threat, the
SPC has placed the area under a Day 2 Marginal Risk. Again, the main
threat will be damaging wind but can`t rule out an instance of large
hail with that second boundary.

Overall, the forecast period is progged to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to range from the upper-70s
to low-80s today with overnight lows only falling to the low to mid-
60s. Highs for Friday are expected to be slightly cooler but still
in the mid to upper-70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025

The period is expected to begin with upper level ridging extending
from the Caribbean into portions of the western Atlantic and
centered near Bermuda, upper level troughing from Canada to Lake
Huron to the upper MS Valley to sections of the Central to Southern
Plains, with another ridge over portions of the western Conus, and
another upper level trough over the eastern Pacific nearing the west
coast of Conus. At the surface, as the period begins, an initial
area of low pressure associated with a shortwave moving across
Canada is expected to beg nearing the St Lawrence Valley with a
frontal zone trailing into the eastern Great Lakes to OH valley to
Southern Plains. A secondary cold front in advance of the 500 mb
trough axis should extend from the Central Great lakes to mid MS
Valley  to Central Plains as the period begins with surface high
pressure centered in the Northern Plains/Dakotas.

Friday night to Saturday night, the northern portion of the upper
level trough initially extending from Canada into the Central Conus
is expected to shear to the east and northeast across Hudson Bay and
into Quebec while the southern portion in the central Conus shifts
to the MS Valley and east of the MS River with a closed low forming
in the OH Valley vicinity with upper level ridging building east into
the Central Conus/Plains. Further west the upper trough is expected
to move into the western Conus/western Canada with the southern
portion of it also closing off over the southwest Conus/Canada.
Meanwhile the first surface front should move into eastern KY and
the Appalachians and become diffuse on Friday night with the next
upstream frontal zone becoming more significant as it enters the OH
Valley on Friday night. As the upper level low develops, a sfc low
should develop along this boundary is expected to track from the
Lower OH Valley to east of the Appalachians from Saturday through
Saturday night with the trailing cold front likely crossing central
and eastern KY later Saturday into Saturday night downstream of the
developing upper level low. Across eastern KY ahead of the more
significant boundary crossing the area later Saturday into Saturday
night, moisture transport back into the region is expected to yield
values in the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range per 0Z GEFS and 0Z ENS ensemble
means. PW values are expected to decrease below 1 inch in all areas
on Saturday night as the deeper moisture departs to the east.
Although convection is possible to begin the period, the approaching
sfc front and low pressure system as well as the upper level system
should result in more widespread coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms across the entire region from later Friday night into
Saturday evening. Areawide average rain totals during this time are
expected to generally range from about 0.8 to 1.5 inches though
locally higher totals may occur in locations impacted by multiple
thunderstorms. In any locations impacted by significant rainfall later
today and Friday, there remains some concern for localized instances
of mainly urban and small stream flooding and the region has a
marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday night into Saturday.
A stronger storm or two is also not out of the question on
Saturday. With anticipated clouds and showers in the area, highs
for Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s, or
below normals which are in mainly the low to mid 70s.

Sunday to Monday night, the upper level low is expected to meander
in the vicinity of the OH Valley per the consensus of guidance while
upper ridging shifts east to the Gulf and over the Central Conus and
the western Conus upper low meanders over the Southwest Conus and
toward the Four Corners region. With deeper moisture having
departed, concerns for heavy rain end though with the upper low in
the vicinity periods of clouds and chances for showers linger
especially on Sunday with a general minimum in chances both Sunday
and Monday nights. Temperatures should average 5 to 10 degrees below
normal mainly for highs for both Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday to Wednesday, the upper level low initially over the OH
Valley to Southern Great Lakes region is expected to gradually
depart to the east and northeast through midweek with increases in
mid level heights at that point. Small chances for showers will
linger, especially during both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with
temperatures moderating to around normal at midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at this TAF
issuance. Quiet weather will persist through the morning into the
afternoon but an approaching cold front will bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances. Ahead of the front, south to
southwesterly winds will develop with sustained winds around 10
knot and gusts to 20 knots will be possible. Showers and storms
will increase in coverage toward 18Z/Thursday with precipitation
persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers and
storms could cause reduction in VIS; as well as, gusty and erratic
winds. A lull in activity is expected overnight tonight but
another cold front is expected to bring another round of showers
and storms before the TAF window closes tomorrow morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERSTON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST